Uncertainty in China after COVID surge reveals deep polarization
When much of the world relaxed pandemic restrictions in 2022, China doubled down. Rather than balance business operations with infection risks, China forced a strict “zero COVID” policy.
In global politics, the zero COVID policy has isolated China from the rest of the world. By sticking to its guns, the Chinese government made this policy of hair-trigger shutdowns central to its image — and its legitimacy.
But the zero COVID policy has not enjoyed the absolute domestic support demanded by China’s single-party and single-ideology approach. The polarization is quite intuitive — China’s 1.4 billion consumers are supported by 150 million registered businesses. When the government depletes the backbone of the economy, people aren’t happy.
Some have interpreted the zero COVID policy as a return to a planned economy, a level of economic control unseen for decades. Given China’s rise to power through market forces, the government’s response to COVID has prompted sell-offs and alarmed foreign investors.
Then, on December 7 of last year, China issued new guidelines that eased the most stringent limitations of the zero COVID policy. This dramatic reversal came — and is coming — with dramatic consequences.
According to WHO, China stopped reporting most COVID figures after ending the “zero COVID” era. Nonetheless, social media has pictured overflowing funeral homes and hospitals, and some provinces have individually reported millions of cases per day when the national government reported only ten thousand country-wide.
Experts estimate hundreds of millions of COVID infections since December 7. The government finally reported 60,000 COVID-related deaths between December 8 and January 12, but that too is likely an underrepresentation.
Just as the zero COVID policy caused discord, its sudden termination and the consequent mayhem has amplified resistance. By maintaining zero COVID for so long, China has dug itself into an inescapable hole of disapproval — at least by sections of the populace.
In the decade before the pandemic, the CCP relied on an average economic growth of 7.7% per year for popularity and legitimacy. Now, 7.7% has turned into 2.9%, and people are dying. Combined, China faces increasing anger.
The reversal of policy alienated the CCP’s loyalists, who supported zero COVID for three long years. Trolls have taken to the internet, where a polarized population engages in a bitter battle of finger-pointing. Conservative nationalists insult those who protested the policy, blaming them for the government’s choice to relax restrictions.
The frenzy has polluted China’s propaganda efforts to control the narrative. Even Xi Jinping acknowledged the rifts in his New Year’s address, saying: “It is only natural for different people to have different concerns or hold different views on the same issue.”
Since the beginning of the pandemic, Xi Jinping has brandished the zero COVID policy as evidence for the superiority of China’s authoritarian model over chaotic Western democracies. Now, as China falls into chaos itself, the CCP must prove that it can manage the crisis and return the economy to its pre-pandemic growth.
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